What To Look For At The Republican State Convention

Now for the other side. The mechanics are the same but the Republican State Convention will offer a different kind of test, with a competitive primary already taking shape and multiple candidates working to define both themselves and the party. But similarly, this is about organization, alignment, and how candidates position themselves with the most engaged elements of their party.

The 15 percent threshold still determines who advances to the primary ballot, and both Erin Stewart and Ryan Fazio have already cleared a separate hurdle by qualifying for public financing. With two viable, resourced candidates, the convention will help clarify not just what is ahead, but what kind of Republican Party is emerging in Connecticut.

We’ll start with Erin Stewart. Conventional wisdom all along has been that Stewart has been in the lead and would get the endorsement but that Fazio would easily qualify. Stewart has already announced her running mate - former State Representative Tim Ackert. Will those predictions hold? Or have the last few weeks of controversies tied to her mayoral record shaken that up? The two most visible examples remain her comment that she had rejected bribes “all the time,” which quickly became the story itself and lingered even after clarification. More recently, she’s been accused of misusing a city-issued credit card, including numerous examples of items that appear to be personal in nature that were sent to her home.

Her initial response was to lean in rather than recalibrate, adopting a more combative posture that might resonate with certain segments of the base but will test general election voters. More recently, she said that she’ll publicly address the credit card issue, but not until after the Convention. In that same news story, one can see the beginning of what might end up being her substantive response. Said Stewart, “I have always taken accountability, and if mistakes were made, they will be addressed, they will be remedied, and we will move forward honestly and responsibly. Leadership is about having the courage to face challenges head on, and while others will choose to obsess over distractions, I remain focused on the people that we are actually here to serve.”

Her candidacy raises one of the more interesting strategic questions of this cycle. In the past, she positioned herself as a center-right executive with crossover appeal who could win a general election. She was first elected mayor of mostly blue New Britain in 2013 at age 26, and went on to win reelection in 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2021. Stewart was seen by many as part of a newer, more moderate, pragmatic wing of the party.

It was that image that she projected to run for Governor in 2018 before dropping her gubernatorial bid on the eve of the state convention, and decided instead to run for Lt. Governor. In that race she came in second with 33% of the vote, losing by 15 points to the more conservative then-state Senator Joe Markley in what was a three-way race.

And now? Stewart’s rhetoric and presentation have shifted noticeably toward a more Trump-aligned posture, including sharper attacks on the media. That kind of repositioning is not unusual in a primary environment, where candidates often move toward the base to distinguish themselves. It’s reminiscent of John McCain’s 2000 run for President when he ran as a moderate but was crushed by George Bush, only to run again in 2008 much further to the right.

So, is this a tactical adjustment or a deeper realignment of Stewart’s political identity? Is it smart because she’s counting on necessary support in a primary to be on the ballot in November? Delegates are more ideologically engaged and more responsive to partisan signaling than a general election electorate. A strong showing would suggest that her message is landing where it needs to in the short term. But it also raises a longer-term question about viability in a general election in a deeply blue state. Is she just setting herself up for future losses?

The other main contender is Ryan Fazio, who Stewart refused to debate and who has taken a more policy-forward approach. His focus on a tangible outcome, such as reducing electricity costs, aligns with a broader political environment where “affordability” has become a central theme across parties. That framing offers a contrast to Stewart’s more style-driven positioning and gives delegates a different model of how to compete both in a primary and, potentially, in a general election.

Will Fazio announce his running mate at the convention? Some have speculated that he’ll choose Senator Heather Somers, who has served since 2016 and is currently the Chief Deputy Senate Republican Leader. A big surprise would be if Fazio and Stewart put together a ticket. Will the rumors prove true? Or did Stewart’s recent issues bury the idea of a fusion ticket? In this CT Mirror story, Fazio basically called Stewart damaged goods, saying: “Erin Stewart’s conduct is disqualifying. Using taxpayer funds to pay for tens of thousands of dollars in personal expenses — including her husband’s birthday gifts, her own birthday dinner, a personal membership at a Hartford social club and more — is a serious crime and a profound abuse of the public’s trust,” Fazio said Sunday. “If she were the nominee, Democrats would spend millions making sure every voter in Connecticut knows it, and Republicans would suffer devastating losses up and down the ballot.”

So, while stranger things have happened, it seems highly unlikely that the Convention will result in a Fazio-Stewart, or a Stewart-Fazio, ticket.

Finally, one of the under-the-radar things to watch this weekend is not just who wins between the top two, but whether anyone else breaks through enough to complicate the field. Operating from a much different tie is Betsy McCaughey, a Newsmax host and former New York lieutenant governor,who has been active in party circles and participated in candidate forums and debates. Her ceiling is less clear, but conventions can sometimes reward candidates who have done the quieter work of delegate outreach. She also has not qualified for public financing.

This weekend’s Republican convention is not just a checkpoint in the nomination process; it is an early indicator of how candidates are choosing to navigate the tension between winning a primary that spans the spectrum of party ideology and building a coalition that can compete in November.