ICYMI: Our Latest Poll Shows Lamont’s Advantage, Elliott’s Opening

Last week, we released a poll, by Change Research, of 887 registered CT Democrats who are likely to vote in August’s primary election between incumbent Governor Ned Lamont and progressive challenger, Josh Elliott. We encourage you to explore the detailed memo, toplines and crosstabs. For more coverage of our poll, see here.

As Dan Haar wrote, the core finding is that Lamont is well ahead overall, but Elliott, who is expected to qualify for public financing in the next few days which would give him close to $4 Million to spend, has a clear opening with younger voters. Before voters received any information about the candidates, Lamont led Elliott 58% to 20%. After respondents read balanced, positive and negative descriptions of both candidates, Lamont’s lead narrowed to 47% to 30%. Haar’s piece goes on to emphasize that turnout will likely be a big obstacle for Elliott, because older voters are far more likely to participate in the August primary, giving Lamont a structural advantage despite Elliott’s strength with younger Democrats.

Our poll suggests that Elliott’s path is narrow but real: he would need to dramatically raise awareness, define the race around economic affordability and tax fairness, and mobilize younger voters who are historically unlikely to vote in a late summer primary. Lamont’s advantages are his broad favorability, older-voter strength, and financial capacity.

As we’ve been saying since before the Convention, Lamont remains the favorite. Now that the stage is set, will he treat Josh as a minor distraction, a cautionary signal, or a legitimate rival? And can Josh build an affordability brand and convert voters?

62 days and counting.