Is Josh Elliott a Real Threat to Ned Lamont in Connecticut’s Governor’s Race?

A question circulating quietly in Connecticut political circles is whether Representative Josh Elliott poses a real threat to Governor Ned Lamont in this year’s Democratic primary. At the moment, the answer appears to be no. The most likely outcome is that Gov. Lamont gets reelected in November because defeating an incumbent governor in one's own party is very difficult. In fact, it hasn’t happened in modern times. (Lt. Gov. Bob Killian tried against Gov. Ella Grasso in 1978, and former Congressman Toby Moffett tried against Gov. Bill O’Neill in 1986: neither challenger came close).

A February poll found Lamont leading Elliott by a wide margin among likely Democratic primary voters, 57% to 13%. But polling alone rarely determines the trajectory of a race. 

The more consequential question is whether Elliott can qualify for public campaign financing. Elliott is currently more than halfway toward the roughly $350,000 threshold. If he meets it, he’ll gain access to public funds – approximately $3.75 million – that enable him to run a credible statewide campaign, shifting the dynamics of the primary in meaningful ways. 

Public financing exists precisely to allow challengers like Elliott to compete against well-funded incumbents like Lamont who has the ability to personally finance his bid to defend his seat, again.

Connecticut’s own political history offers reminders that primary campaigns can evolve quickly. In the 2010 Democratic primary for governor, Lamont entered the race as the heavy, early favorite. At this point in the 2010 election cycle, Malloy was in a similar position to where Elliott is today: far behind and far outspent. But with public financing, Dan Malloy ultimately overtook Lamont and won the nomination after a long campaign that gave voters time to evaluate the candidates side by side.

This is one reason primaries, despite the frustration they sometimes create within parties, still serve an important function. They test candidates, force campaigns to organize, and give voters the opportunity to weigh competing visions for governing.

If Elliott qualifies for public financing and can get 15% of the delegates at the Democratic Convention in May, he will have the chance to run that kind of campaign. Elliott, a Hamden legislator first elected in 2016 after defeating then–House Speaker Brendan Sharkey in a Democratic primary, is running as a progressive challenger and has argued that the party needs a clearer governing vision. 

The Democratic primary, however, is only one part of the broader political picture this year.

Republicans face a different strategic challenge. Two Republican candidates (Ryan Fazio and Erin Stewart) have already qualified for public financing and are viewed as the two main contenders in their party. With an ever-growing field, Republicans are preparing for a possible prolonged primary contest. A months-long intraparty fight risks exhausting resources and delaying the moment when the eventual nominee can begin defining the general election. 

If leading Republican contenders consolidate around a ticket at the party convention, the fall campaign could begin much earlier. If they do not, the general election may effectively become a shorter and more compressed contest.

What’s clear now is that the shape of the governor’s race has not yet been determined, and Josh Elliott is not currently a threat to Gov. Lamont. But if he could run a publicly funded, credible campaign, he’ll change the trajectory of the Democratic primary. And if that happens, the race for governor in Connecticut may look very different by late summer than it does today.